In the complete absence of philosophical pretension, certain stark commitments — of deep philosophical significance — are sometimes made manifest. Such is the case with Grant Williams’ extended (and thoroughly charted) meditation on The Economic Consequences of the Peace.
What emerges, with exceptional clarity, is the fundamental complicity of Austrian Economics, Metaphysical Naturalism, and the Tragic Sense. This triple-headed harsh realism finds itself positioned in a relation of radical dissent to the dominant assumptions of our time, deploring the hubris of a global managerial elite who presume to turn back the tides through technocratic action. As Williams lucidly states:
Both war and financial collapse occur in cycles and are subject to the overwhelming laws of nature.
Those inherent characteristics of the natural order are permanent. They cannot be altered.
What the Fed and the rest of the central banks have done in trying to rewrite the natural laws of finance and human behaviour is likely to lead either to war or to a collapse of the financial system — or both. At this point, the exact outcome is undecided, but the options have narrowed considerably.
Over the past six years, those at the helm have pulled every lever and pushed every button available to them in a desperate attempt to stave off an inevitable and natural cleansing of the business cycle, because all those years of economic peace have resulted in an unprecedented credit inflation. And, as my friend Dylan Grice recently said,
“If you’ve had… an unprecedented credit INflation, you WILL have an unprecedented credit DEflation”
All that the central banks of the world have ended up doing as they have desperately tried to maintain the economic peace these past several decades is to make that credit inflation larger and therefore infinitely more dangerous than anything that has gone before it.
The consequences WILL be dire.
Tragedy is the dramatization of natural sovereignty, expressed as the visitation of climactic ruin upon unsustainably deluded human ambition. It is not an argument, but rather the demonstration of a reality beyond argument — a naturalistic prophecy.
The Konratieff wave-length sets a rough time-horizon for the tragic forecast. Already marginalized, within a decade or so — absent the anticipated nemesis — it will have been almost fully dissipated into comedy (or implausible melodrama). The ‘hubris’ of macroeconomic wave-management will by then appear — even to previous skeptics — as nothing of the kind, but instead as confirmed wisdom and effective power, wielded by true masters of the tides. The alternative, of course, is “dire”.
ADDED: Those dancing on the grave of Nature should be careful who they dance with.